Kodi mitengo yapanyumba ipitilira kutsika?

Mtengo wa nyumba umasintha
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Msika wa nyumba ukusintha. Izi sizosadabwitsa, chifukwa zomwe zimakwera ndikukwera ziyenera kukhazikika.

Mitengo ya nyumba yakwera kwambiri kwa zaka 10 kuchokera pamene vuto lalikulu la nyumba linatha mu 2012. Koma pali zizindikiro zosonyeza kuti mwina atsala pang’ono kutha.

Kodi zonsezi zikutanthauza chiyani pamitengo yamtsogolo yam’nyumba?

Kumayambiriro kwambiri kuti tidziwe ndithu. Koma timayika chala mu mphepo posonkhanitsa maganizo a akatswiri ena apamwamba a nyumba. Tawonani zomwe zikuchitika, zotsatiridwa ndi maulosi awo ndi malingaliro awo.

Zochitika zaposachedwa panyumba

Ndalama zapakhomo zimaposa ndalama zomwe zasungidwa
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Miyezi ingapo yapitayi yakhala yozungulira kwa iwo omwe ali pamsika wanyumba. Zosintha zaposachedwa zikuphatikiza:

  • kuchepetsa kukula kwa mtengo. kuyaka kale kusinthidwa Kumene mitengo inali kukula, tsopano ikutsika. Mu theka loyamba la 2022, mitengo yanyumba idakula pafupifupi 11% – chinthu chomwe changochitika zaka zinayi zathunthu zaka 35 zapitazi. Koma kuchuluka kwapachaka kudatsika kuchokera pafupifupi 21% mu Epulo mpaka kuchepera 20% mu Meyi ndi 18% mu June. Akatswiri azachuma amatcha mtengo uwu kukhala “wotsika.”
  • Malonda akunyumba akuchepa. Malonda a nyumba omwe alipo adatsika ndi 5.9% mu July poyerekeza ndi June, malinga ndi National Association of Realtors. Uwu unali mwezi wachisanu ndi chimodzi wotsatizana wa kuchepa.
  • Mitengo ina ya bearish. Mtengo wapakatikati wa nyumba yomwe ilipo (osati yatsopano) yatsika kuchokera pamtengo wapamwamba mu Julayi wa $ 413,800 mpaka $ 403,800 mu Ogasiti, ikutero NAR. Uwu ndi mwezi umodzi. Kodi kuchepako kudzapitirira? Malonda ndi manambala amitengo ndi mwezi umodzi kapena iwiri kumbuyo, kotero ndizotheka kuwona zomwe zikuchitika m’mbuyo.
  • Mtengo wapanyumba wotsika kwambiri. Ofufuza za nyumba za Zillow akuti mtengo wapakatikati wanyumba udatsika ndi 0.1% mu Julayi kuyambira Juni mdziko lonse. Ndikoyamba kutsika mwezi uliwonse padziko lonse lapansi kuyambira 2012.

Inde, mitengo ipitilira kutsika mpaka kumapeto kwa 2022, zolosera za AEI

mtengo wa nyumba
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Ed Pinto, mkulu wa American Enterprise Institute’s Housing Center, akuyembekeza kuti mitengo yanyumba idzatsika.

Pinto akulosera, malinga ndi Fortune Magazine, kuti “pofika tchuthi cha December,” mitengo idzagwa 4% m’dziko lonse mu theka lachiwiri la chaka.

Akuti mitengo yapakatikati yakumapeto kwa chaka idzakhala yokwera 6% kuposa chaka chatha, koma chifukwa chakutsika kwamitengo kudzabisika ndi ziwerengero zakukula kwamitengo koyambirira kwa 2022.

Komabe, akuwonjezera kuti, “Amerika sakukumana ndi chilichonse ngati kugwa kwathunthu.”

Ayi, iwo sangatero – osachepera osati pamaziko a mitengo yamtengo wapatali ya ngongole yokha

chiwongola dzanja chokwera
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Nanga bwanji za kukwera koopsa kwa chiwongola dzanja cha ngongole chaka chino? Kodi adzatsitsa mitengo yanyumba? Chiwongola dzanja pa ngongole yokhazikika yazaka 30 chinakwera kuchoka pa avareji ya 2.87% pa Seputembara 1, 2021, kufika pa 5.66% patatha chaka.

Zotsatira zake zinali zowawa kwambiri. Kulipira pamwezi kwa $ 300,000 kunyumba kwakwera pafupifupi 30% – kuchokera $1,283 mpaka $1,666, katswiri wa nyumba Laurie Goodman adanenanso ku Barrons (kulembetsa kumafunika).

Katswiri wina, National Association of Realtors, adapeza kuti “malipiro obwereketsa ndi 65% kuposa chaka chatha.”

Zikuwoneka kuti kugundika koteroko kudzakakamiza ogulitsa kuti achepetse mitengo kuti asunge ogula osafuna chidwi.

Koma Goodman akuti mbiri ikuwonetsa zosiyana:[T]Nthawi ndi nthawi… mwaokha, chiwongola dzanja chokwera cha chiwongola dzanja sichimatsitsa mitengo yanyumba. ”

Panali zosiyana, koma nthawi zambiri, pamene Fed inalimbitsa chiwongoladzanja kuti chiwongolere kutsika kwa mitengo, monga momwe chinachitira chaka chino, chimalimbitsa chuma, chimawonjezera ndalama komanso kusunga mitengo ya nyumba kukhala yolimba, akutero.

Inde, mitengo ipitirirabe kutsika, makampani ena akuluakulu amati

wopuma pantchito wosasangalala
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Mark Zandi, yemwe ndi katswiri wazachuma ku Moody’s Analytics, wakhala akusintha posachedwa pantchito yanyumba. Poyamba tinkayembekezera kukhazikika kwa mitengo ya nyumba za dziko [in 2023]Tsopano tikuyembekeza kuti atsika mpaka 5%,” Zandi adauza Newsweek.

Zillow adakonzanso zoneneratu zamitengo yanyumba zakale kuti aganizire za kuchepa kwa mitengo.

Ayi, sangatero, akutero katswiri wazachuma wa nyumba, chifukwa kufunikira kwa nyumba kukupitilirabe

Ogula nyumba akuyankhula ndi wothandizira
Chithunzi cha Sean Locke / Shutterstock.com

Lawrence Yun, katswiri wazachuma ku National Association of Realtors, sayembekezera kuti mitengo yanyumba idzatsika mdziko lonse.

“Kutsika kwamitengo padziko lonse lapansi sikungatheke,” CNBC idatero poyankhulana ndi Yoon, pozindikira kuti kufunikira kwanyumba kukupitilira: manambala antchito ndi amphamvu ndipo ogula akupikisanabe ndi zinthu zochepa kwambiri.

Kuwulura: Zomwe mumawerenga apa zimakhala ndi cholinga nthawi zonse. Komabe, nthawi zina timalandira chipukuta misozi mukadina maulalo mu Nkhani zathu.

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