Polowera ku likulu la Admiral Insurance ku Cardiff city center

Gulu la Admiralty ndilosangalatsa kwambiri (OTCMKTS:AMIGF)

Siri Breeze

Chaka chakhala chovuta kwa ambiri omwe si a inshuwaransi ku UK. Kukwera kwamitengo yamitengo yamagawo am’derali kwawononga mitengo yamitengo, pomwe zonena zokhudzana ndi magalimoto zakwera kwambiri kuyambira pomwe ziletso za mliri zidachotsedwa. Choyipa kwambiri kwa makampani a inshuwaransi, amatha Osunga malamulo salinso okhulupirika ku mkaka ndi mitengo yokwera pang’onopang’ono pomwe bungwe la Financial Conduct Authority ku UK laletsa ‘kuyenda pamitengo’. Izi zikutanthauza kuti kukongola kwamitengo yamateyala kwa miyezi 12 kwatsika, zomwe zikupangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kupambana otsogolera kuposa omwe akupikisana nawo.

Nthawi zambiri, gawoli limawoneka ngati galu wokhala ndi utitiri. Komabe, monga owerenga a Alpha Search amadziwira, malingaliro amtunduwu ndi kungoitanira ku mwayi wopeza mitengo yabwino yamabizinesi abwino kwambiri. Poganizira izi, ndipo zotsatira zamphamvu za semi-chaka zomwe zidatulutsidwa mu Ogasiti, ndikuganiza kuti kampani ya inshuwaransi ya Admiral Group plc (OTCPK:AMIGF) ndiye kubetcha kosiyana komwe osunga ndalama angayamikire.

Gulu la inshuwaransi la Cardiff, Wales komanso ovulala omwe avulala Admiral amapeza pafupifupi phindu lililonse kuchokera ku inshuwaransi yamagalimoto ku UK. Julayi watha, osunga ndalama adawona chenjezo lolandira kuchokera kwa osankhika anzawo a Saber Inshuwalansi, ndipo adatsimikiza — pochotsa gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a mtengo wamsika wa Admiral – kuti Admiral akumana ndi kukwera kovutirako kwa chiwongolero chake chophatikizika — muyeso wamakampani a inshuwaransi. underwriting profitability.

Zotsatira za semi-pachaka za Admiral mu Ogasiti zidalandiridwa bwino ndipo masheya adachira pang’ono koma tsopano achepa. Zotsatira za theka la chaka zidawonetsa kuti zinthu zayamba kutsika ndikuwunikira zovuta zomwe ma inshuwaransi omwe si a moyo athana nazo chaka chino, koma zonse zidawonetsa zifukwa zokhalira ndi chiyembekezo.

Chofunika kwambiri m’malingaliro anga ndi chakuti Admiral sanatsatire Saber popereka chenjezo lazopeza zotsatira za theka la chaka. Zikuwoneka kwa ine kuti kampaniyo ikulimbana ndi zomwe zikuchitika pano.

Admiral adasunganso magawo wamba komanso apadera, omwe amapindula ndi £0.442 ndi £0.158 motsatana, zomwe pamodzi zidakwana 90% ya zopindula zonse za miyezi isanu ndi umodzi mpaka Juni.

Ndalama zowonjezera za £0.45 zaperekedwa kuchokera ku zogulitsa za Admiral Insurance Comparison Sites ku Penguin Portals ndipo iyi ndiye malipiro omaliza okhudzana ndi ntchitoyi. Ponseponse, a Admirals adalipira £ 1.05 theka loyamba. Kudzipereka kwamtundu wotere pakubweza kwa eni ake ndi chizindikiro champhamvu cha chidaliro cha oyang’anira onse pazachuma, komanso kuti eni ake adzalandira mphotho chifukwa chokhala ndi katunduyo. M’malo mwake, zopindula za omwe ali ndi masheya apanga pafupifupi magawo awiri mwa atatu a chiwongola dzanja chonse pagawo lililonse pazaka 10 zapitazi.

Ndikuganiza kuti Admiral ali ndi nkhokwe zokwanira kuti apereke zopindulitsa zambiri. Ngakhale atatulutsa £ 169m mu theka loyamba la 2022, zonena za Admiral zidakwera ndi 6% mpaka $ 1.72bn. Admiral iyenera kupitiliza kukankhira nkhokwe zina ngakhale m’malo omwe alipo. Otsatsa ayenera kusiyanitsa pakati pa ma inshuwaransi omwe ali ndi zovuta zokhudzana ndi kampani zomwe sizikuyendetsedwa ndi gawo, ndi ma inshuwaransi omwe akuchitabe bwino komanso athanzi. Kuphatikiza apo, admiral ali ndi Piotroski F-score yokwanira 6 mwa 9.

Tsopano kuti mliriwu wayamba kuchepa, ku UK osachepera, ndizoyenera kufananiza zomwe zikuchitika pano ndi 2019. Chotsatira chachikulu cha mliriwu chakhala kutsitsa mwachinyengo chiwopsezo cha kampaniyo, popeza mamiliyoni a oyendetsa magalimoto ndi magalimoto amalonda achita. anasiya kuyendetsa galimoto, kotero kuti Claims anagwa. Izi zidapangitsa kuti chiŵerengero cha zotayika zomwe zimaperekedwa kwa ndalama zomwe adalandira (zomwe zimadziwikanso kuti chiŵerengero cha kutaya kwa gulu) kutsika kufika pa 49.1% mu theka loyamba la 2021, asanabwerere ku 67.6% mu theka loyamba la 2022. Yerekezerani izi ndi chiwerengero cha 2019 cha 69% , kotero titha kunena kuti zomwe zikuchitika pano zili pafupi kwambiri ndi zomwe kampaniyo ikuyembekezeka. Kumene kukwera kwa inflation kumagwira ntchito mu gawo lonse la mtengo wa gulu. Izi zinali 23% mu 2019, koma 29% pazotsatira zaposachedwa pomwe mitengo yakwera pamapaipi odandaula – pazinthu monga magalimoto ogwiritsidwa ntchito, kukonzanso ndi ntchito – zonse zikomo chifukwa cha kukwera kwamitengo komwe kulipo.

Kusungidwa kwamakasitomala

Limodzi mwa mafunso ofunikira muzolemba zazachuma ndi malingaliro okhudza kuthekera kochepetsera kukwera kwa inflation ndi kupsinjika kwa mtengo kuti athe kuthetsedwa ndi kukwera kwa ma premium. Inshuwaransi yamagalimoto ndibizinesi yopikisana, ndipo makampani ena a inshuwaransi sanayerekeze zolipiridwa ndi mitengo ya inflation. Mwina ndichifukwa chake osunga ndalama adasokonezedwa kwambiri ndi chenjezo lazachuma la Saber mu Julayi, chifukwa adawoneka ngati chizindikiro choyambirira pamakampani a inshuwaransi yamagalimoto.

Tsopano tinganene kuti mantha amenewo anakokomeza, makamaka malinga ndi mmene admiral ankakhudzidwira. Ndikuganiza kuti msika wachepetsa mphamvu ya Admiral yosunga makasitomala omwe alipo ndikupeza atsopano. Kwa Gulu la Admiral, manambala amakasitomala amakwera 14% pachaka, ndi 35% kuyambira Juni 2019. Mizere yake ku UK idawona kukula kwa 12% mpaka makasitomala 6.9m pachaka, kapena kuwonjezeka kwa 30% poyerekeza ndi 2019. Ndikuganiza kuti izi ndi zabwino pakuwonjezeka kwa ndalama zikatsika, makamaka poganizira kuti Admiral tsopano ndi inshuwaransi yayikulu kwambiri yagalimoto ku UK yomwe ili ndi pafupifupi 16% ya msika wapakhomo, komanso ili ndi mphamvu zambiri pamakampani ogulitsa, zomwe a Michael Porter wa Five Force akuwonetsa. Udindo wabwino kwambiri wamakampani kukhalamo.

Pamodzi ndi kuchuluka kwachuma komwe tatchula pamwambapa, chifukwa china chomwe Admiral adachita bwino kwambiri ndi anzawo ndikuchokera kubizinesi yosiyana siyana yomwe imalola kuti pakhale malo osungira omwe angapangitse kuti azigawana nawo.

Tengani, mwachitsanzo, kampani yobwereketsa ya Admiral Money, yomwe imapereka ngongole zandalama zopanda chitetezo. Kuwona bwino kwa chiwongola dzanja chamsewu kunathandiza kuti gawoli lipeze phindu lake loyamba mu theka. Ngakhale sibizinesi yofunika kwambiri kwa Admiral poyerekeza ndi inshuwaransi ya Admiral, ikuwonetsa kuthekera kokulirapo kwakukula m’malo opindulitsa, chifukwa ndikuyerekeza kubweza kwa magawowa pazachuma kuyenera kukhala mu 30% mpaka 35%.

Ngozi kapena mwayi?

Komabe, chimodzi mwa zoopsa zomwe Admiral akukumana nazo ndi msika waku US, womwe adalowa mu 2009. Admiral US ndizosatheka kukhala inshuwaransi yapamwamba 10, komwe Berkshire Hathaway ndi mfumu. Zingakhale zoyenera kuchepetsa zotayika pano ndikutuluka mubizinesiyi ndikubweza ndalamazo kwa omwe akugawana nawo. Oyang’anira anganene kuti kugwira ntchito pamsika wamsika wa inshuwaransi wamagalimoto okhwima kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi kungapereke zidziwitso zothandiza pantchito zina zonse za gululo. Izi zitha kukhala chothandizira, popeza admiral sanayikebe bizinesi yaku US.

kuwunika

Sitoko tsopano ikuchita malonda pafupifupi nthawi 16 zomwe zimapeza, molingana ndi avareji yake yazaka zisanu. Shiller PE yake ndi 13.5x, yomwe ili pansi pamtunda wazaka 10 kuchokera ku 11.5x mpaka 30x.

Izi zitha kukhala chifukwa osunga ndalama amakhala osamala kwambiri pazomwe amaganizira komanso kuthekera kwa Admiral kusintha ndalama zomwe amapeza kukhala zopeza zonse. Otsatsa malonda atha kukhala ndi malingaliro ochepera, monga momwe amachitira nthawi zambiri, za kuwonongeka kwa ndalama zomwe zatsala pang’ono kutha. Komabe, poganizira kukula kwamakasitomala komanso kubweza masheya owoneka bwino komanso kulosera kwanga pakukula kokhazikika kwa ndalama m’zaka mpaka 2025, ndikuganiza kuti masheyawo ali ndi zabwino zambiri.

Oyang’anira atha kulola magwiridwe antchito a Admiralty kuti alankhule. Pazaka 10 zapitazi, palibe membala wina wokhazikika wa FTSE 100 yemwe wapereka gawo lalikulu la phindu lake kuposa mtengo wa msika wa Admiral wa 2012. Ziwerengerozi zimapatsa a Admiral imodzi mwazolemba zabwino kwambiri zotsata kubwereranso pakati pa FTSE 100 chifukwa cha kukhazikika kwake pakati pa kubwerera kumalipiro ndi kukula.

mapeto

Mwachidule, machitidwe osasinthasintha a Admiral, phindu lamphamvu, komanso malo amsika zimandipatsa chidaliro chachikulu m’zaka zikubwerazi. Ndikuganiza zowonjeza katunduyu ku mbiri yanga.

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